THE DRIPBAR · CORPORATEPATH TO $4.5M · BRIEFING 01 OF 05

Where we are — May 2026

All-in NET revenue, reconciled cell-for-cell to Stephanie's monthly royalty report (TDB Net + Liquivida, tax-excluded). This is the number Ben sees.
$4.12M
May 2026 system revenue, all-in NET. The strongest month on record outside Dec 2025's holiday-loaded peak.
vs $4.5M Goal
−$376K
8.4% gap remaining
vs May 2025
+24.4%
$3.31M → $4.12M YoY
May 2026 components
TDB
$3.62M
LQV
$500K
Gap
$376K
Goal
$4.50M
→
We are 92% of the way to goal, not 82%. The $4M reference point is stale — Liquivida joined the system in Dec 2025 and now contributes ~$500K/mo on the same base.
THE DRIPBAR · CORPORATEPATH TO $4.5M · BRIEFING 02 OF 05

We've stopped growing organically

Net change in operating locations, monthly. 26 openings in Apr 2024 (FDD class), then 18 months of effectively flat network. Q1 2026 was the worst quarter in TDB history for net change.
Peak active centers
97
Dec 2025 — Liquivida had just joined
Q1 2026 net change
−3
4 openings vs 7 closures — worst quarter on record
May 2026 active
94
Where Nov 2024 left us. AUV has done all the work since.
→
Same-store-sales has carried the system for 18 months. We are running out of AUV runway — the next leg of revenue growth requires new openings to come back online.
THE DRIPBAR · CORPORATEPATH TO $4.5M · BRIEFING 03 OF 05

The path to $4.5M is clear

Forecast model decomposes Dec 2026 system revenue by source of change. Three levers, ranked by impact. Under default execution — 5 measured openings, 5% SSS, Liquivida steady — Dec 2026 lands at goal.
LEVER 01 · LARGEST IMPACT
Hold Liquivida
$500K/mo
Real 6-month history: $456K–$530K, avg $499K. If we lose Liquivida, December drops to $3.99M and the goal becomes structurally unreachable. Stability here is non-negotiable.
LEVER 02 · STRUCTURAL LIFT
5% SSS growth
+$120K
Trailing actual is +12% YoY but decelerating. Holding a conservative 5% annualised lift across the stable core delivers December lift through the Town Hall initiatives — GLP-1s, Peptides, Ozone, NUTRAFi.
LEVER 03 · LATE-2026 BUILD
5 targeted openings
+$63K
New stores contribute slowly — median ramp is $5K month-1, $22K by month-12. Five openings spread evenly across Jun–Dec build modest 2026 contribution but seed 2027 materially.
Dec 2026 forecast
$4.49M
Default scenario assumes Liquivida at $499K/mo, 5% SSS, 5 openings evenly distributed Jun–Dec, 3 closures spread evenly. Reconciled to live simulator.
✓ AT GOAL
THE DRIPBAR · CORPORATEPATH TO $4.5M · BRIEFING 04 OF 05

Why June reads $3.62M — and December lands at $4.49M

Same base. Same growth assumption. Same Liquivida contribution. The only thing that changes month to month is the seasonal factor — and TDB's seasonal shape is the same every year.
June 2026
Weakest month of the year
Stable base, deseasonalized$3,497K
× June seasonal factor× 0.888
(June historically runs −11.2% vs trend)
× One month of 5% SSS growth× 1.004
Stable core, June$3,118K
+ First new store opens+ $5K
+ Liquivida+ $499K
− Closure drag− $0
June 2026 forecast$3.62M
December 2026
Strongest month — holiday loaded
Stable base, deseasonalized$3,497K
× December seasonal factor× 1.107
(December historically runs +10.7% vs trend)
× Seven months of 5% SSS growth× 1.029
Stable core, December$3,983K
+ All 5 new stores ramping+ $63K
+ Liquivida+ $499K
− Closure drag (3 closures)− $60K
December 2026 forecast$4.49M
→
June is not a stumble — it's the calendar. The same stable base produces $3.62M in June and $4.49M in December because the seasonal index swings 20 points across those seven months. December's holiday premium is doing the heavy lifting on the full year, and it does every year.
THE DRIPBAR · CORPORATEPATH TO $4.5M · BRIEFING 05 OF 05

What we need to execute

The model works. The data is solid. What follows is what we need cleared this quarter to put the levers in motion.
01
Bobby Initiative — formal go-ahead
Corporate-funded marketing → leads → GHL → SDR ("Bobby") → appointments at a hand-picked mid-tier cohort. Funded by the 2% national marketing fee. First-10 location list ready to lock with Alex. This is the engine behind the SSS lever.
02
Liquivida revenue protection
Quarterly stability review on the LQV $456K–$530K monthly range. Identify operational, contractual, and competitive risks early. A 10% drop in LQV erases half the SSS lift — protect it with the same intensity as TDB.
03
Closure mitigation framework
Q1 2026 lost 7 locations — the worst quarter on record. Build the early-warning system: revenue-decile tracking, franchisee health scorecards, structured intervention before churn. Every prevented closure is ~$240K/year retained.
04
Targeted opening cadence
5 measured openings Jun–Dec 2026, not 15. Quality of cohort matters more than quantity given the Q1 2026 churn signal. Coordinate with franchise sales to slow the funnel and raise the bar.
We have the model, the data, and the cohort. We need the green light.
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